Picks of the Week
By Tee Kane
February 14, 2008
It's starting to get a little old being right every single week. Last week I correctly predicted Obama's romp in the Potomac primaries would be headlined by a surprising strong showing in Virginia. With these victories, Obama took the lead in both pledged delegates and total delegates (includes the oft-talked about super-delegates).
The conventional wisdom at the moment is that Obama finally has the type of lasting political momentum that will carry him through to the nomination. I'm not sure this is quite true. There's a long time between now and the Clinton-firewall primaries of Texas and Ohio on March 4th, a lot of events/gaffes/endorsements can still happen. If there's anything that this race has taught us, it's that Hannah Arendt’s principle that politics is fundamentally unpredictable remains true (except, of course for this column). Clinton can also now cast herself as the underdog and use that status to her advantage.
The logic of this conventional wisdom is also dependant on the belief that Obama has an insurmountable lead in the earned delegate count, which will in turn persuade the super-delegates to declare their support for him. While Obama probably does have an insurmountable lead in pledged delegates, he will most likely not be able to secure enough remaining pledged delegates to clinch the nomination. If Clinton
decides she wants to fight this to the bitter end and fight over every single super-delegate she can probably force a fight at the convention. Of course, the only way she can do this and not look like a sore loser, or a democratic usurper is by winning Ohio and Texas.
As for the contests this Tuesday, February 19 in Wisconsin and Hawaii, look for Obama to score a dominating performance in his native HI and a solid victory in Wisconsin (though not the kind that piles on the delegates).
Indiana vs. Michigan State (February 16)
Both teams are desperate for a victory to keep pace with surprising conference leaders Purdue. The Indiana program is in full crisis mode after it was revealed that the NCAA was charging them with five serious violations for the conduct of head coach Calvin Sampson. Sampson is alleged to have made phone calls to recruits despite being on probation for a previous violation. Indiana will not have to answer the charges till April, but it’s no doubt a distraction in Bloomington. There’s no better way to quiet those distractions than a big conference win at home.
Final Prediction: Indiana 71, Michigan State 64