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PICKS OF THE WEEK (ELECTION EDITION):
by Terence Kane

Since real votes are finally cast for the first time this week in Iowa, it's fitting that the gambling pick of the week section be an all-election edition. It's also fitting since Tee's Weekly will almost certainly torpedo my future political career.

I'd like to use this small space here to argue for a more robust market for political bets. Who wouldn't love to see the over/under bet on the number of times Rudy says "9/11," or betting lines on who will finish third in Iowa, or live betting on Election Day? One of the great traditions in Irish politics is when all the major politicians go into a local bookie's and make a wager on themselves or their party to win for a photo-op. I'd love if this happened in America and we could watch Mike Gravel or Duncan Hunter walk into a bookie's and bet on themselves to win the presidency.

I'd love to see the look on their faces as the bookie is giving them some ridiculous price like 1,000 to 1 and they both know that even that price is insanely short. The bookies would also be an excellent place for Edwards to give his "Two Americas" speech. Surely, there isn't a more depressing place than a New York City OTB. I really could write 10,000 more words on how we need more gambling, but I know you are anxious to get to my picks.

Barack Obama to win presidency (6 to 1 on Betfair.com): Obama is a slight favorite to win Iowa (a little over 2 to 1) with Hillary a slight favorite to win New Hampshire and much bigger favorite to win the nomination. However, if Obama wins Iowa he should become a massive favorite to win the nomination and then a solid favorite to win the presidency. At 6 to 1 there is fantastic value in this bet. After Obama wins Iowa all that value will be gone, so it's worth your while to get in there now with a bet.

John McCain to win New Hampshire (2 to 1 on Betfair.com): Huckabee should win in Iowa, but you needed to make that bet about a month ago. There's still decent value in McCain to win the New Hampshire primary. The real trick is to guess who is going to win in South Carolina and Florida. A good horse race for the nomination is exactly what the Republican party needs, mostly so the news is focused on polls and not what these shower of eejits are saying. Their only real hope for holding onto the presidency is if they stumble into a brokered convention for the first time since the Democrats nominated Adlai Stevenson in 1952.